March 3, 2016
Predictions Revisited
Dan wanted to know what my answers would have been to the prediction questions the other day.
Well, if you want to be a false prophet just give out a couple specific predictions and it will not be long before you are wrong on something, no matter who you think you are.
The problem with the future is that it is composed of probabilities, except for a few things that are cyclic or predetermined by some intelligence. For instance, I predetermined that I was going to write a post tonight and now I am doing it as expected.
That said, here are the questions and I will answer them as probabilities.
- Will Trump get the nomination?
If not, who?
70% chance he will get it. Ted Cruz could yet gain steam and the Republican establishment will stop the nomination if they can figure out a way to do it.
Trump needs to be very careful for his security.
- Will Hillary get the nomination or will one of her scandals get in the way?
If she didn’t have impending scandals it would be 95%, but because legal problem are on the horizon it is 50% There is a 30% chance that Joe Biden will be the nominee 10% for Bernie Sanders and 10% someone else.
- Who will be president in 2017?
60% Trump 20% another Republican and 20% the Democratic nominee. Republicans will have the advantage of the bigger turn out this time.
- Will there be some sort of financial collapse before the election and will it cause problems with the election.
There is a 50% chance for some type of collapse this year and a 25% chance it will be a bad one. If it happens it will sway people toward the Republicans this time.
- What will gold and silver do? Right now gold is at $1242 an ounce and silver is at about $15.
It will stay fairly stable until there is a downturn in the stock market or inflation returns.
This is a good time to buy gold or silver as it is unlikely that they will go down much, but just a matter of time before they go sharply up.
Copyright 2016 by J J Dewey
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