Tag: Charlie Kirk

Finding the Truth About Charlie Kirk

Finding the truth about the Charlie Kirk incident is a good exercise in discovery for those who seek the real truth.  The problem is that there are a lot of ingredients to the whole picture, and those with different ingredients in their brains will come to different conclusions. The need therefore is to break the whole down to its parts, examine them and then put together a picture to see the whole with all of us using the same parts.

Let us start by examining two points where the majority of the hard evidence lies

Point One: Evidence points to Tyler Robinson as the lone shooter.

We have video of the alleged shooter escaping from the roof with what appears to be a rifle. Evidence is pretty conclusive that this was Tyler Robinson. They found a spent 30.06 shell casing on the roof with his matching DNA on it. He also left a screwdriver on the roof that had his DNA on it. As he was leaving the roof, he left palm prints containing his DNA. After jumping off the roof he left a footprint at the drop site matching his Converse sneakers. The shooter fled into the woods where they found the 30.06 rifle with his DNA on the trigger.

In addition, Robinson texted his romantic partner before the shooting, confessing: “I am [the shooter], I’m sorry,” and directing them to a note under his keyboard reading, “I had the opportunity to take out Charlie Kirk and I’m going to take it.” In a Discord group chat, an account linked to him stated: “It was me at UVU yesterday. im sorry for all of this. im surrendering through a sheriff friend in a few moments.” Messages to his roommate discussed retrieving the rifle from a drop point, leaving it in a bush wrapped in a towel, and engraving bullets—mirroring the recovered evidence.

Point Two: Evidence from the bullet.

Fortunately, there are numerous recordings of the bullet being shot.

Turning Point had a live stream recording of the event.

Then there were numerous recordings from smart phones and body cameras from the 3,000-person crowd.

Finally, there were nearby campus security microphones.

These were timestamped to 12:23:30 p.m. MDT, syncing with surveillance footage of Robinson in a prone firing position on the Losee Center rooftop.

Here is an analysis of the recorded sound by audio forensics expert Rob Maher reported by CNN:

“Audio captured near the podium where Charlie Kirk was speaking suggests Charlie was hit with a single supersonic gunshot.

Supersonic rounds are fired from high-powered weapons. This finding rules out the possibility that a small handgun or similar weapon which fires rounds below the speed of sound was used in the attack.

Maher says that a signature “crack” and “pop” pattern, heard in the audio recording, suggests that the single bullet was fired from a rifle. Audio forensics alone cannot confirm the weapon’s model or variant.

Maher’s analysis found that the time between the ballistic shock wave’s “crack” and muzzle blast’s successive “pop” was approximately 240 milliseconds. With that time interval and an inferred bullet speed of 800 meters per second, the firearm would have been located about 153 meters from Kirk’s podium.”

Charlie was actually 130 meters from the shooting position, but if we factor in the fact that with a 30.06 there are several different grains available for the bullets and the smaller bullets travel faster and have less impact than a larger grain. This fits right into the 130 meters distance and the fact that Charlie’s neckbone stopped the bullet.

Overall, the audio analysis does give evidence that the single bullet recorded came from over 100 meters with a high-powered rifle and not from someone close by.

There are a handful who disagree with this, but the majority opinion supports this, and coupled with the fact that an empty shell casing containing Robinson’s DNA was found on the rooftop creates pretty powerful evidence that the shot was from him on the roof.

Fortunately, a bullet was recovered from a vertebra in Charlie’s neck. Though there is much speculation, there is no authoritative statement on whether the bullet was intact or just a fragment. Unfortunately, there is a gag order which limits disclosure of detailed forensic reports, and ballistic findings, to protect trial integrity. We do not have an official analysis of the bullet and probably will not until the trial, but Grok does say this:

“The probable cause affidavit (filed September 12, 2025, in Utah’s 4th District Court) and charging documents detail the recovery of a deformed .30-06 projectile from Kirk’s body, matching the caliber of the spent casing (with Robinson’s DNA) and the rifle (also with his DNA on the trigger). During a September 16, 2025, press conference, Utah County Attorney Jeff Gray referenced the rifle as “the one that killed Kirk,” implying forensic confirmation without elaborating on rifling.”

Now let us examine a number of reasons put forward that cause many to believe that what appeared to have happened did not happen and that there was some sort of conspiracy involved.

The most common thing put forward is the belief that a 30.06 would have almost blown Charlie’s head off. They say a 30.06 bullet would have gone clean through and exited the body. Therefore, he must have been shot by a smaller caliber weapon, possibly from someone close by. If this were true then placing Robinson on the roof, the empty shell, the text messages would have had to all be set up as a decoy. This seems pretty unbelievable as it would mean Robinson would have volunteered to be charged with first degree murder to make it work.

Those making this assertion assume that the bullet used was a standard full metal jacket containing 150-220 grains. This bullet made for big game would indeed in most instances enter and exit most humans and animals. However, The Berger VLD design, popular in Utah, incorporates a sharp polymer tipped nose that allows the bullet to penetrate 2″ to 3″ before it starts to expand. After the initial expansion, the bullet will shed between 40% to 95% of its weight as shrapnel into the surrounding tissue and dump 100% of its energy after penetrating two to three inches. There is often no exit wound with this bullet.

Another hunting 30.06 bullet by Federal Power-Shok features the 150-grain Jacketed Soft Point bullet, which uses the Speer Hot-Cor process. This design can be described as a “soft lead” bullet fragments and go down to about 50 grains which rarely exit a deer.

Martin Luther King Jr was shot in the lower right cheek with a soft point 30.06 thought to be 150 grains and did not exit, but fragments were found in his left shoulder blade.

Even in war, using a gun like Robinson used (from WWI era) and standard full metal jacket, bullets in around 10% of the cases will fragment and not exit the body.

Numerous people online are reporting that they have shot game in the neck with a 30.06 and the bullet did not exit, but usually do not describe the type of 30.06 bullet they use.

In addition, we do not know whether Tyler used a new bullet, an old one or a reloaded one. If it was reloaded, he could have put in a smaller-than-normal load which would have reduced the impact damage.

If it was an old one from his grandfather’s stash, then the gunpowder could have been degraded and lost a lot of its potency.

The mystery of the bullet will most likely be solved at the trial as the remaining two will be easy to identify.

Consider this: If Charlie was shot by something besides a 30.06, then the bullet had to have been fired by someone besides Tyler Robinson. Yet the spent 30.06 shell casing tells us with great certainty that a 30.06 was fired at that time. To make this theory work the conspirators would have had to arrange it for Tyler to leave an empty shell casing on the roof while another shooter actually did the job. Tyler would have also had to voluntarily put himself in a situation that would make him the prime suspect for first degree murder when he was innocent. This makes absolutely no sense.

On top of this, there is little evidence for a shooter other than Robinson and it is provable that Robinson was definitely on the Losee Center rooftop and he left an empty fired 30.06 shell behind.

Many are accusing Israel as being behind the murder. They think that perhaps this was the work of Israel intelligence, Mossad. The evidence cited is that it is claimed that Charlie, who had been a big supporter of Israel, had expressed some criticism and had upset doners. Besides, Candace Owens says that there were 12 Israeli cell phones among the 3000 attending the event. Netanyahu is also accused of being secretly angry at Charlie while pretending friendship.

The 12 cell phones are not evidence of conspiracy in my book. Mormonism draws many international people to their schools, and among 3000 people there were probably over 12 cell phones from several nations, such as England, Germany, Brazil and others.

Because the evidence is strong that Tyler is the shooter, any influence from Israel or any other nation would have had to have been directed toward him. Currently, there is not a shred of evidence that Robinson was influenced by Israel. We do know he was very pro toward the LGBTQ community, and most of them are very critical of Israel and sympathetic toward Hamas. Tyler hated Kirk and if some Israeli agent approached him to assist, he would have most likely told then to go jump in a lake – that he would proceed without their help.

It is possible that Mossad, the CIA or some underground groups had agents penetrate his inner circle and cheer him on or assist him in the act. In addition, there are accusations that the FBI, and even the Mormon church were involved without revealing who they represent, but so far there is no hard evidence of any of this.

Another accusation is that the murder was an inside job. The idea presented is that there are those within Turning Point who were either jealous or disagreed with Charlie or were just power seekers who wanted him out of the way.

Leading the charge is Candace Owens who is quite accusatory in this direction, sounding quite convinced it is true with very little real evidence.

She herself seems convinced that there was foul play within the organization, saying on YouTube Episode 259: “It reeks of an inside job.”

Then, in an Oct 27 podcast she declared this:

“Everything turning point is doing is wrong

and you know it’s wrong. You know it’s wrong deep down. I wanna say this, ’cause there has been a lot of reading in between the lines. It’s strange to me. I think I’m a very direct person and I say what I mean and I do not want people to mistake what’s happening right now or to wrongly assume my attention here.

“So allow me to be very explicit. Okay, I want war with all of you. Okay, all of you.”

So, she sees herself “at war” with “all” of Turning Point. That would especially include Erika Kirk since she is now in charge. This has led Candace to make these comments:

“There’s two things happening here. There are there’s a widow and then there is the chairman and the CEO… And she has assumed that role. OK, so criticism is pertaining to anything at Turning Point USA that are being directed at Erica are fair. Yeah, I’m putting the fire here right at the feet of Turning Point.” YouTube Episode 257

And here she assumes the purpose of this inside job was to install “a new ruler”:

“But I’m starting to think that the assassination of Charlie Kirk was something akin to a wretched side, right? The assassination of a king to install a new ruler who the king would have never approved of.” Podcast # 245 Sept 30, 2025

She’s made numerous other accusatory remarks toward Erika and Turning Point such as:

“I believe that people within that company betrayed Charlie… I don’t believe that he (Robinson) was the lone person involved. I don’t even think he’s a person that killed Charlie Kirk.” YouTube Episode 240

“It reeks of an inside job. That is how I feel. And the more that we learn about the story, the little changes that happen, the inexplicable things that we’re learning, it becomes clearer and clearer that somehow at some layer, at some stage, Turning Point USA is involved because they’re giving us no clarity… It’s looking to me like the apparent plan was to assassinate Charlie Kirk, who had at long last faltered on the pro-Israel cause. OK, his words, not mine. And then to stage a hostile takeover of his brand and of his legacy.” YouTube Episode 259

Candace makes strong accusations toward a number of Turning Point leaders but particularly picks on Mikey McCoy. Right after the shot, he made a phone call to Erika and his father instead of rushing toward Charlie to help. This may be a somewhat odd response, but it is certainly not enough to conclude some kind of guilt here.

There were a number of other things in the media that fed into conspiracy theories. One that aroused my suspicions was a report from neighbors of a mysterious number of cars parked in front of Tyler’s apartment shortly before the shooting with out-of-the-area license plates.

However, this report turned out to be something that someone fabricated and circulated on social media. Investigators can find no neighbor who reports seeing any unusual number of visiting cars.

Another story that seems odd, even to those who are not into conspiracy, is that it was reported that Fourth District Court Judge Tony Graf, appointed by Utah Gov. Spencer Cox, issued a broad gag order on September 29 that was supposed to affect all 3000 attendees. Some even took it to mean that even those not in attendance would be restricted in speech.

This gag order, though, was not as universal as some in the media were claiming, as it does not apply to all 3,000+ attendees. Instead, it targets “known witnesses” as they are identified and subpoenaed for trial, preliminary hearings, or evidentiary proceedings.

This gag order is unusual, but is no proof of a conspiracy, as lately it seems we read regularly of a judge making some unusual decree or overstepping normal legal authority.

The most logical thought that fuels conspiracy theories is that Tyler did not act completely of his own initiative – that he was either cheered on or assisted by someone.

Robinson was active in at least two group chats: one with friends (20+ members) focused on gaming and casual banter, and another smaller one with his roommate, Lance Twiggs.

There is no evidence of planning in either group but there was probably some reinforcement of some of his extreme views. Just before the shooting he did express his intent to take out Charlie to his friend Lance.

If he was secretly influenced by Turning Point or government insiders, this was very successfully kept under the radar.

One of the strangest anomalies of the event was created by a 71-year-old with a history of minor mental health issues, including episodes of delusional behavior.

Right after the shooting, George Zinn stood up yelling “Shoot me!” and repeatedly claimed to police, “I did it—I shot the fascist!” while gesturing wildly toward the stage. Officers subdued him without resistance and took him into custody for questioning. He was quickly ruled by police as unstable, but not the shooter, and wound up being charged with felony obstruction of justice and facing five years in prison.

Investigators and conspiracy theorists suspect he may have been an accomplice of some kind, creating a distraction so the killer could escape, but no hard evidence points in this direction. Most have ruled him out as a crazy guy overreacting.

There are numerous other instances cited that stir belief in a conspiracy but none raise enough of a red flag with me to consider them more than curiosities.All the conspiracies out there from the moon landing in 1969 to flat earth theories have a large number of points made that seem to support them. An interesting one is the claim that Paul McCartney died in a car crash in 1966 and was replaced by a look alike.  This seems pretty outrageous but what is amazing is the number of anomalies that seem to support it. Just go to YouTube and search for “Paul McCartney Died in 1966: Here’s the Proof”.

Watch a couple of these and you’ll almost believe that the Paul McCartney we have been seeing for a generation is not the real guy, but if we fall back on the reasoning mind we see the chances of this being true are very small.

In my estimation, there is one real possibility that remains uncovered and that is this: Did Robinson have any associates or contacts who helped him concoct a plan? Does his romantic partner, Lance Twiggs, know more than he let on?

I cannot find any solid evidence of involvement of a foreign government or the Deep State, but there is a possibility that he had a small inner circle who helped him plan the crime and cheered him on.

That said, I’ll end this by giving readers my estimate of the probability of the various assumptions of this case.

[1] The lone shooter was Tyler Robinson – 95% surety.

[2] There was only one shot fired. – 99%

[3] The weapon used was the grandfather’s 30.06. – 95%

[4] Robinson acted completely alone of his own initiative, though he had external influences as have we all. – 50%

[5] He received direct assistance and encouragement from others or could have been groomed by some source. – 50%

[6] Conspirators from Turning Point provided assistance for the crime. – 10%

[7] Tyler was not the shooter and Zionists or Mossad orchestrated the whole thing. – 2%

[8] Tyler was not the shooter and Zionists or Mossad bore some responsibility for the crime. – 5%

[9] Tyler was not the shooter and the FBI, CIA or Deep State were involved and partly or fully responsible. – 5%

[10] Tyler was influenced in a negative way from various online sources, friends and the media – 100%

On giving this conclusion do not assume that I go along with the establishment on every incident where conspiracy theories surface. For instance, I think there was a conspiracy around the JFK murder and am very skeptical of the orthodox story around the Trump assassination attempt in Butler Pennsylvania – and I wouldn’t be surprised if we had little or no gold at Fort Knox.

But when one looks at this incident logically, using the known facts, as presented, the evidence is pretty strong that Tyler Robinson was the lone shooter.

It will not be long before the trial and though I suspect that conspiracy theories will linger afterwards, we should discover some solid key information that will put at least some of the speculation to rest.

My guess is that the principle of Occam’s Razor will play out which states: “The simplest explanation is usually the best one.”

Note the word “usually.” There’s always the chance that Paul McCartney was really replaced and that Tyler Robinson was not the shooter.

Nov 15, 2025

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