Conspiracy Theories and Reason
Arguing about conspiracy theories is rarely productive as both sides usually have their minds made up but one thing they are good for is providing fodder for the seekers to sharpen their ability to perceive truth.
For instance, we either went to the moon or we did not. There is no gray area in the truth here. Those who were fooled by the so-called conspiracy evidence need to reflect and examine their thinking and ask where they went wrong. If a person can be fooled on one proven point then maybe he is fooled on a number of items.
The tricky thing about examining conspiracies is that there are real conspiracies in the world so one is foolish to just dismiss them all out of hand. Each one should be examined for its merit and analyzed. Arguing about conspiracy theories is rarely productive as both sides usually have their minds made up, but one thing they are good for is proving fodder for the seekers to sharpen their ability to perceive truth.
That said, what are the major and minor points to consider? Do many miss the forest and only look at the trees? Yes, the big picture is often overlooked and those who are deceived get lost in the details.
Let’s see what we should be looking for if we want to find a real conspiracy composed of shadowy characters pulling strings in the background.
Major point: A shadowy conspiracy that must keep its identity secret must be composed of a small number of people to succeed. The ideal number is three. If there are more than six with a general knowledge of what is going on then the chances of the conspiracy being exposed is great and exponentially increases as more participants are added.
Most of such successful shadow conspiracies in our history have been murdering people who are considered obstacles. A conspiracy to murder has the advantage of only needing a small number of insiders to accomplish the job.
Sandy Hook fits in this category. We do not know if there was a conspiracy but one is possible because it could have been pulled off with three to six insiders.
On the other hand, many conspiracy theories would demand thousands of knowledgeable people participating. Two such conspiracies are the Moon landing and 9/11. Because both of these would demand thousands of participants and hundreds of insiders the mathematical probability of them being credible just from this one principle is so miniscule that they should be dismissed out of hand. The reason these conspiracies have to be very limited in number is that when more than six people are involved the chances of someone spilling the beans becomes high. When dozens or more are involved then you can be sure that the conspiracy will be exposed.
There has never been a proven shadow conspiracy that has involved more than a handful of people.
Conclusion: If you want to find a real shadow conspiracy look for one that can be carried out by a handful of participants pulling the strings.
Minor Point: A detail that doesn’t seem to make sense or seems too coincidental.
Sandy Hook has quite a few of these. For instance we have a picture of one of the dead girls, Emily Parker, showing up after the massacre. Then we have her dad being cheerful and laughing just before an interview.
The moon landing conspiracy claimed that the flag planted by Armstrong waved as in a wind which was impossible. Photos showed no stars in the sky and convinced them the astronauts were in a studio. The angle and color of shadows are inconsistent giving them more supposed proof they were in a studio.
Happenings like this are odd but they can be explained away.
The point is that after every major event anomalies will be discovered. A number of strange coincidences always seem to surface, even in events where it is obvious that no conspiracy exists.
Second major point: Real conspirators rely on tried and proven methods and do not want to try something new that requires great risk or would have a high risk of exposing them.
For instance, if the moon landing was a hoax, then it would only be a matter of time before it was exposed by another nation checking out the landing sites. Why would anyone risk such a sure-fire exposure?
Conspiracy people claim that the Twin Towers was a controlled demolition, but the largest building ever brought down with explosives was the J.L. Hudson Building in Detroit which was only 22 stories high. The Twin Towers were 110 stories and any technology to bring them down would have been very experimental and unproven. Only a fool would have tried such an unproven method and anyone smart enough to get away with a conspiracy is not a fool.
Minor point: It seems odd that the buildings collapsed as they did.
These details prove nothing because we have never witnessed the destruction of a building this size. Trying to guess all the details from theory is like the scientists trying to guess the results of the first atomic bombs going off. They knew nothing for sure until they actually exploded one and examined the results.
Science thought it was against the laws of physics that the universe could be increasing in the rate of expansion, but they found they were wrong when they discovered the very odd fact that the speed of expansion is increasing.
Observations around events that reveal oddities are the rule rather than the exception. A lot more reliable criteria for making a judgment is to look at the big picture and examine what is logical there.
Reader Comment: Ideally, any crime committed can be best achieved by doing it yourself with nobody involved. Crimes can involve many people and succeed. Caesar’s assassination is an example of more than three persons being involved and succeeding. The Kennedy assassination probably involved more than three
JJ: I said that three was the ideal number for a conspiracy, not that you couldn’t have one with a greater number. The larger the number the more awkward it becomes.
A reader did a good job in classifying the conspiracies as those that are intended to be kept secret [as the moon landing and 9/11] and those that require secrecy for a short time followed by the incentive of glory and power such as Caesar’s assassination and Stauffenberg’s group.
Another difference is no one can be proven to have known 911 was coming, but Hitler knew there was a conspiracy against him. He suspected some of the players but did not go after them because it would hurt his credibility with the military. He was almost relieved after Stauffenberg’s failed attempt. He stated that he finally could go after the conspirators and still keep the support of the military.
All the main conspiracy accusations today involve shadowy characters that do not want to be discovered before, during or after the event.
If Kennedy was killed by a conspiracy, I would guess there were only about a dozen or less who orchestrated it.
By contrast, the moon hoax would have involved over 100,000 – a mathematical impossibility. If 9/11followed the popular conspiracy theories then it would have involved thousands which would have made it impossible to keep secret after the event happened.
Let us suppose Stauffenberg and his group succeeded in assassinating Hitler and wanted to keep it secret. Could they have succeeded? Not a chance.
Even so, the thousands of supposed conspirators with the moon hoax or 9/11 could not have kept the details secret. We would have all kinds of insiders showing up on Sixty Minutes with disguised voices spilling their guts to clear their guilt.
Reader: You forgot the Gulf of Tonken hoax that got us into the Vietnam war. They have admitted it never happened and it required hundreds of Naval and army personal to keep it quiet. Or how about Operation North woods? Here is a good list of proven
JJ The Gulf of Tonkin (and other examples) prove my point. It was not kept secret. We now know all about it. Conspirators can often keep a plot secret for a time, but after it is executed, people pay attention and the truth comes out if there is a significant number of people who know about it.
It has been years since 9/11 and if it was a conspiracy as claimed then there would be dozens of the thousands involved who would be willing to talk about it just as many are now happy to talk about the Gulf of Tonkin.
Let me give just one example. A popular part of the 9/11 conspiracy theory is that the original planes were switched with missiles, or something else the military controlled, and the planes were diverted to some military base where the 246 passengers were killed and dispatched.
Now let us suppose you were one of the dozen or so military guys who were ordered to kill the passengers and dispose of the bodies. Wouldn’t at least one of these guys have been driven by guilt to tell us what really happened?
The fact is that if there was a conspiracy as advertised then thousands had to know major details and no one has come forth.
Though it is probably true that we do not know all of the planning and execution behind the 9/11 event, it is very obvious that there are many flaws in the popular conspiracy theories.
An age is called Dark, not because the light fails to shine, but because people refuse to see it. – James A. Michener
Jan 18, 2013
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