Illusion 105.1

2004-4-7 06:23:00

The Question:
Bush is criticized as presiding over the worst job market since the great depression. It is said that he has lost us three million jobs.

Where is the illusion in this accusation?

Hint:
The unemployment rate is 5.7% which is higher than the average of the 70's 80's and 90's. If things are as bad as the great depression as far as jobs go then why are not more people unemployed?

Obviously, the job market is not even close to as bad as the Great Depression. The unemployment rate then was over 25%. During this time my parents move in with another family so both families could survive on less money. My mom received an insurance settlement of $20 a month and sometimes the two families lived on that and nothing else.

It is amazing indeed that such an obvious illusion has captivated close to half of the nation as being true.

The current unemployment rate is 5.7% which is better than the average of the last three decades. For those without jobs during any time period the experience can be devastating, but such experience is no more likely to happen now then during the Clinton years - which the press touts as being glory years economically.

It is amazing that the economy is as good as it is figuring that 911 alone cost us one million jobs and about a trillion dollars from our economy. In addition, we've had to fight the war on terror which has been another huge drain.

Here's another fact that no Bush critic will site. There are two methods of determining job loss or gain. One is called the payroll survey and the other is called the household survey. The critics use only the payroll survey which surveys the job market that pays an hourly wage, but leaves out the self employed and entrepreneurs.

The Household Survey goes deeper and surveys actual households to inquire as to how many are unemployed.

The household survey reveals that over the past three years there has been a surge in people starting their own businesses and if we take these into consideration there has been 1.8 million new jobs created since 2002 and Osama Bin Laden. Job creation has pretty much kept up with job loss since Bush took office.

In addition to this the more orthodox payroll method reveals an addition of 308,000 new jobs in March. This is a figure that even Bush critics have to accept.

Here are some statistics from February before the current surge in jobs.

* The 5.6 percent unemployment rate is the lowest in two years and below the average of the 1980s (7.3 percent) and '90s (5.8 percent), and still continues to drop.
* The nation's economic output revealed the strongest quarterly growth in 20 years. The data for the fourth quarter of 2003 show that the civilian labor force rose by 333,000, while the number of unemployed in the labor force dropped by 575,000. Even better, the number of so-called discouraged workers declined in December.
* Consumer spending grew between 4 percent and 5 percent last year, and real hourly earnings rose 1.5 percent. Real earnings have risen over the last three years.
* Exports doubled to 19 percent in the fourth quarter, compared to less than 9 percent in the third.
* The number of American workers is at an all-time high of 138.5 million, a level never before attained in U.S. history.
* Jobless claims are 10 percent below the average of the last 25 years and still falling.
* Hiring indices are up, even in manufacturing. * Productivity growth is extremely high. From NewsMax.com, Feb. 25, 2004

Second Question:
John Kerry says he has a plan to create 10 million new jobs. Is there illusion here when there are not are not 10 million unemployed?

Enjoyed John's comments on this.

By some accounts there are 8.5 million unemployed so to promise 10 million new jobs is odd indeed. Even full employment is realized by economists as an impossibility.

Below is a speech from a past president that I heard quoted on the radio today. Read it over and you'll almost think you were listening to Bush today.

In recent months I have spoken many times about how difficult and dangerous a period it is through which we now move. I would like to take this opportunity to say a word about the American spirit in this time of trial.

In the most critical periods of our nation's history, there have always been those fringes of our society who have sought to escape their own responsibility by finding a simple solution, an appealing slogan, or a convenient scapegoat.

Financial crises could be explained by the presence of too many immigrants or too few greenbacks.

War could be attributed to munitions makers or international bankers.

Peace conferences failed because we were duped by the British or tricked by the French or deceived by the Russians.

.... At times these fanatics have achieved a temporary success among those who lack the will or the vision to face unpleasant tasks or unsolved problems.

But in time the basic good sense and stability of the great American consensus has always prevailed.

Now we are face to face once again with a period of heightened peril. The risks are great, the burdens heavy, the problems incapable of swift or lasting solution. And under the strains and frustrations imposed by constant tension and harassment, the discordant voices of extremism are heard once again in the land. Men who are unwilling to face up to the danger from without are convinced that the real danger comes from within. They look suspiciously at their neighbors and their leaders. They call for a 'man on horseback' because they do not trust the people. They find treason in our finest churches, in our highest court, and even in the treatment of our water.

But you and I and most Americans take a different view of our peril. We know that it comes from without, not within. It must be met by quiet preparedness, not provocative speeches.

And the steps taken this year to bolster our defenses -- to increase our missile forces, to put more planes on alert, to provide more airlift and sealift and ready divisions -- to make more certain than ever before that this nation has all the power it will need to deter any attack of any kind -- those steps constitute the most effective answer that can be made to those who would sow the seeds of doubt and hate.

So let us not heed these counsels of fear and suspicion. Let us concentrate more on keeping enemy bombers and missiles away from our shores, and concentrate less on keeping neighbors away from our shelters. Let us devote more energy to organize the free and friendly nations of the world, with common trade and strategic goals, and devote less energy to organizing armed bands of civilian guerrillas that are more likely to supply local vigilantes than national vigilance.

Let our patriotism be reflected in the creation of confidence rather than crusades of suspicion. Let us prove we think our country great by striving to make it greater. And, above all, let us remember that, however serious the outlook, the one great irreversible trend in world history is on the side of liberty -- and so, for all time to come, are we.

From a speech by President Kennedy 1961

Question:
Many are saying that Bush lied about weapons of mass destruction and other items. Did he lie or has his enemies created an illusionary definition of a lie so they can accuse?

The radical of one century is the conservative of the next. The radical invents the views. When he has worn them out the conservative adopts them. --Mark Twain (1835 - 1910)