The Road Ahead
(Note: This was an interesting take on the state of things back in 2013. At the time many were concerned about a possible economic collapse. Unfortunately, that concern continues to this day)
The group is indeed interested in knowing the economical future of the United States and the world so they can prepare for things to come. Not only are seekers such as ourselves very interested in this but a large portion of the world is. We live in unstable times and people are concerned and just wish they knew what to do.
I have said many times that the exact future is not written in stone and cannot be predicted by anyone, even the masters. Certain cycles though can be seen and predicted fairly accurately. Some cycles can be predicted with exactness and others with only ball park accuracy. For instance, we can pinpoint the rising and setting of the sun from any location on the earth for centuries to come. On the other hand, we can accurately predict that spring will come soon but we cannot predict the day that fruit trees will put forth their first buds and make it official.
Predicting the economy is a little like predicting the seasons and the weather. We know we are going to have sunny and cloudy days, stormy and clam, but exactly when they will occur is still far from and exact science because of the many variables.
On the other hand, there are signs we can take into consideration in order to prepare. If we see dark clouds ahead there is a good chance that a storm will be coming our way soon. It is not a sure thing for maybe the dark clouds will shift in direction or become dispersed.
Now let us look at the economic signs we have in front of us. We have recently gone through an economic crash [2008] caused by extreme recklessness. The problems that created this has been tackled on a haphazard basis and most of them are far from fixed. In addition to this, we have a deficit spending problem, the full effects of which has not yet materialized.
This deficit spending and massive borrowing presents a possible outcome that could be worse than the Great Depression. Unless there is a massive course correction the question is not “If” disaster is ahead, but “When” it should come.
In looking at the future there is an important point to take into consideration that no economist brings up. Obama is a person blessed with extremely good luck.
When he ran for the Senate his win was a long shot. He was running against an extremely popular and good-looking Jack Ryan who was married to the beautiful Seven of Nine Character from Star Trek. Then a sex scandal was unearthed and Ryan was replaced with a very poor candidate causing Obama to win. Then when he ran for President the polls showed McCain ahead weeks before the election. Then the financial meltdown occurred and the blame was placed on McCain and his fellow Republicans. Obama rose in the polls and won.
In the 2012 campaign against Romney the polls showed Romney ahead by 4-6 points. Then Hurricane Sandy occurred and all we saw in the media was Obama looking presidential handling the crisis. Romney was nowhere to be seen for about a week before the election. Again Obama rose in the polls and won.
During the last four years Obama has made a tremendous number of bad economical decisions. One of the worst was his war on oil drilling and natural gas. In spite of this, new technology has greatly increased production on private land. This has caused a reduction in imports that Obama took credit for. One economist is predicting that despite Obama’s lack of support for drilling that we will have an oil and gas boom. This, he says, will stimulate the economy and Obama will take full credit and be seen as the savior of the economy. This would be strange indeed if this happened.
Taking everything into consideration I will not make specific predictions but will give probabilities as I see them.
The probability of having a collapse of the dollar and the economy in the next ten years – 80%
The probability of it happening during the Obama administration – 50%. He’s human, subject to karma, so his luck could run out.
The probability that a collapse would be so bad that our government would break down for a time and there could be chaos – 25%
The probability that it would be bad like the Great Depression but the country would hold together and work things out – 55%.
A couple years ago, for the first time I recommended that we do our best to prepare for hard times ahead by storing up some food and emergency supplies. I have found that a number of things I bought back then have risen 25% or so in price so even if disaster does not occur some storage is a good investment. You’ll make better interest on it than most investments.
I think there is a high probability the stock market has is close to a maximum and will make a major drop. It would be a good idea to move funds to gold and silver until the economy looks more stable.
Unfortunately, if there is a collapse none of us will be as prepared as we would want to be and if there is a total breakdown there is not yet a gathering of lights as a place of refuge. It is my hope and work that such a gathering will take place before such a breakdown occurs.
Perhaps the angels who fear to tread where fools rush in used to be fools who rushed in. – Franklin P. Jones
Feb 14, 2013
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